by Omar Cruz | Aug 19, 2026 | Affordability, Mortgage Rates
Author- Keeping Current Matters
If you’re waiting for mortgage rates to fall a lot before you buy, you may be waiting a while. But before you get discouraged, there’s a number working behind the scenes that’s actually good for you right now. It’s called the spread, and once you understand it, you may see today’s rates in a whole new light.
The Pattern That’s Held for 50+ Years
For starters, mortgage rates don’t move on their own. They tend to follow the 10-year treasury yield, a number tied to how investors feel about the economy.
It’s not an exact science, since plenty of other factors can move it day to day, but broadly speaking, when the economy looks strong, that yield tends to climb over time. When the outlook gets shaky, it tends to ease. For over 50 years, the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates have moved almost in lockstep (see graph below):
The gap between them is called the “spread.” On average, that gap runs about 1.76 percentage points. And that spread impacts your mortgage rate. A wider spread tends to push mortgage rates higher than the treasury yield alone would suggest, while a narrower spread keeps rates closer to the treasury yield.
One of the Big Reasons Rates Likely Won’t Drop Dramatically Anytime Soon
If you’re hoping mortgage rates will drop a lot, here’s the reality, they probably won’t, at least not anytime soon. One of the big reasons why comes down to that spread between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates.
A few years ago, that gap got a lot wider as uncertainty in the economy pushed it as high as 3.19 points in 2023.
Now here’s the part worth noting that gap has been narrowing lately. It’s down to about 2.01, just above the long-term average of 1.76 (see graph below):
When the gap is wide, there’s more room for rates to fall. But when it’s relatively normal, like it is now, there’s less wiggle room for rates to fall.
Why Mortgage Rates Aren’t Higher Right Now
Today’s mortgage rate is basically the treasury yield plus the spread. So, when either one moves, your rate moves with it. Here are 3 different rates, all built off today’s 10-year treasury yield of 4.68% to show you just how much the spread matters for your bottom line (see graph below):
If the spread were still stretched out like it was in 2023, rates would be pushing close to 8% right now. That’s because the spread was over a full point wider than it is today.
But now, thanks to the spread narrowing recently, today’s rate sits around 6.69%. That’s the middle scenario in that visual. That’s a big difference in your monthly payment compared what we could see if the spread was as big as it was 2023. As Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, put it:
“Of course, mortgage spreads being better in 2026 is the housing hero story of the year . . .”
Now compare that middle bar to the 3rd one. If the spread were sitting at its exact long-term average, rates would be around 6.5%. That’s only about a quarter of a point away from where rates actually are today. That means most of the improvement in mortgage rates we should realistically expect from a shrinking spread has already happened.
In other words, the same narrowing spread that’s the reason rates aren’t close to 8% today is also a big reason why they’re not likely to fall a lot further.
Bottom Line
That’s the trade-off with a narrowing spread. Rates may not be where you want them, but they’re better than they could’ve been. If you want help figuring out what that means for your monthly payment, reach out to a local lender
by Omar Cruz | Jul 16, 2026 | Affordability, For Buyers, For Sellers, Forecasts, Home Prices, Mortgage Rates
Author: Keeping Current Matters
If the first half of this year has left you feeling stuck, you’re not the only one. Mortgage rates stayed higher than people wanted. Affordability remained tight. And uncertainty overseas added another layer of pressure nobody saw coming.
That’s why so many people are asking the same question: Will the second half of the year be any better for the housing market?
While nobody has a crystal ball, there are a few encouraging signs that things could start moving in a better direction. Here’s what to watch.
Mortgage Rates Could Be Near a Turning Point
One of the biggest reasons mortgage rates haven’t come down yet is inflation. And higher energy prices and uncertainty overseas are at least part of the reason inflation is still elevated. The encouraging news?
Oil prices have already started coming back down.
That may not sound like it has much to do with buying a home. But historically, mortgage rates and oil prices tend to move in the same direction.
Take a look at the graph below. Generally, they rise and fall together. Both went up in February when the conflict began. While there’s been some volatility lately, experts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) say oil prices are forecast to come down. And since oil prices have been on an overall downward trend lately, mortgage rates could come down too:
It’s too soon to say exactly when that will happen (or by how much they’ll fall), but if energy prices go down, inflation cools off, and tensions overseas ease, mortgage rates could come down in the second half of the year.
And that’s good news for anyone thinking about moving. The first half of the year tested everyone’s patience. The second half may finally reward it.
Home Prices Could Pick Back Up
A lot of people want home prices to fall, too. But that’s not what most forecasts show.
While price trends are going to vary by area, and some places are seeing mild declines, experts still expect home prices to net positive this year at the national level.
In fact, they’re projecting prices will rise by an average of 2.3% in 2026 (see graph below):
What does that mean for you? Right now, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)data shows prices are up about 1.7% nationally year-over-year. The average forecast for all of 2026? 2.3%.
Based on those projections, home price growth would have to pick up a bit during the second half of the year. Nothing dramatic, just enough to finish the year around that projected 2.3% gain.
Here’s why that’s possible.
The number of homes for sale has grown, but that growth may be starting to slow down. And if rates improve, more buyers could jump back into the market. More buyers competing could put modest upward pressure on prices, especially if inventory’s not growing as fast.
That’s why buyers shouldn’t assume waiting will guarantee a lower price later. And for sellers, that’s great news if you’ve been worried about your home’s value.
More Homes Are Expected To Sell
If you’ve been wondering why the housing market has felt quieter lately, you’re not imagining it. Home sales have been slower than many experts expected. But that doesn’t mean people have stopped wanting to move.
A lot of people still want or need to make a change. They’ve just been waiting for more certainty, better affordability, or a clearer read on where the market is headed. And early signs show that it may be on the horizon.
If rates ease and confidence improves, more people may finally move. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:
“Overall, we expect pent-up demand to continue emerging gradually. But the pace of recovery will vary significantly across markets and will depend on the path of rates, labor market conditions and inventory growth.”
Based on the latest forecasts, to hit the number of sales expected this year, here’s what would have to happen. The second half of the year would need to outperform the first in sales (see graph below):
In fact, each month for the rest of 2026 would have to come close to matching the best month we’ve had so far this year (May). That’s a sign the experts are calling for more momentum headed into the second half.
More people will finally make their move happen – and you’ve got the chance to be one of them.
Bottom Line
The second half of the year probably won’t be perfect. But it could be better.
Mortgage rates may ease. Home sales could pick up. And prices are expected to continue rising at a healthier, more sustainable pace. If you’ve been waiting for signs of progress, this is it.
If you want to understand what these forecasts mean for your plans and what’s happening in your local market, connect with an agent.
by Omar Cruz | Jul 10, 2026 | Equity, For Buyers, For Sellers, Foreclosures, Home Prices, Mortgage Rates
Author: Keeping Current Matters
You’ve probably heard plenty of doom and gloom about the housing market lately. High rates. Stretched budgets. Headlines that make buying or selling sound like a terrible idea. But the data tells a very different story.
This isn’t 2020 or 2021. It was never going to be. Those were the “unicorn years” – historic low mortgage rates, bidding wars on everything, homes flying off the market in days. That kind of market was a once-in-a-generation anomaly, not a baseline. So, when people compare today to that, of course, it looks rough.
But compared to almost any other housing market in modern history? This one is holding up remarkably well.
Homeowners Are Sitting on a Mountain of Equity
One of the biggest reasons this market hasn’t cracked is the financial strength of the American homeowner. According to Federal Reserve data, homeowner equity and mortgage debt were nearly identical in 2008. That means, if someone hit a rough patch, they had almost nothing to fall back on. That’s what made that crash so bad.
Today? Total homeowner equity across the country sits at $35 trillion – dwarfing total mortgage debt (see graph below):
That gap means most homeowners aren’t stretched thin or one bad month away from trouble. They own a meaningful chunk of their home and that gives them options. If they needed to sell, many could because they have a cushion. And that cushion grows over time.
- Realtor.com found that homeowners who’ve been in their home just 5 years have built up around $180,000 in equity on average. Stick around 6-10 years, and that jumps to over $340,000.
- Data from ATTOM and the Census show that two-thirds of homeowners either own their home outright or have more than 50% equity.
That’s not a fragile market. That’s a population of homeowners who are financially positioned to sell, to stay, or to make their next move from a place of strength rather than pressure.
Low Rates and Low Foreclosures
At the same time, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data shows more than half of all active mortgages still carry a rate below 4% (see graph below):
That’s a big reason inventory stays tight. Those homeowners aren’t in a rush to trade their rate for a higher one. They’re sitting comfortably in a strong financial position, not scrambling.
That comfort shows up in the foreclosure numbers, too. Despite a slight recent uptick, foreclosure volumes remain dramatically below historical norms, according to ATTOM. Homeowners aren’t losing their homes in droves. They have equity, they have breathing room, and most have options that keep them out of financial distress.
Prices Are Stabilizing, Not Crashing
Here’s another point on the resilience of the market. Redfin research shows home prices are still rising, but the pace has slowed, now closer to 2% year-over-year nationally (see graph below):
That slowdown is good news, as Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, explains:
“We’re in the middle of a long-term housing market correction, not a housing market crash. After the pandemic-era frenzy sent prices soaring and inventory to historic lows, the market needed a reset.”
Bottom Line
This market isn’t broken, and waiting for a crash that isn’t coming has a cost. Every month spent on the sidelines is a month someone else is building equity, locking in a price, or getting ahead of what most experts expect to be a housing surge once broader economic conditions settle.
Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, a local real estate agent can help you figure out what this market means for your specific situation and what your next move could look like.
by Omar Cruz | Jun 5, 2026 | Economy, For Buyers, For Sellers, Forecasts, Home Prices, Mortgage Rates
Author: Keeping Current Matters
If the housing market feels confusing right now, you’re not alone.
Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven’t picked up like expected. And many buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or be more affordable.
The truth is: a lot changed over the first half of this year.
Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound.
But lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and growing geopolitical tensions overseas pushed mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates stayed elevated for longer, many buyers continued to hold off.
That’s why experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):
So, what does this actually mean for you? Let’s break it down.
Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated
While just about everyone wants mortgage rates to go back to the upper 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, as of right now, the experts don’t think that’s likely to happen this year.
Instead, forecasts have been updated from the low 6s they originally projected. Many industry organizations are saying rates will stay in roughly the mid-6s this year. The good news is that’s still lower than rates were a year ago.
Of course, this is based on what we know today. If the conflict overseas comes to an end or inflation drops, this could change. But if you’re waiting for lower rates, it may not pay off in the way you expect.
Existing Home Sales Revised Lower
Back in late 2025, experts expected we’d sell an average of 4.5 million homes this year. Now? That’s dropped down a bit to 4.2 million.
That tells us something important: buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains challenging.
Higher mortgage rates have made monthly payments harder to manage, especially for first-time buyers. And that’s slowed the pace of the market compared to what was originally expected. But even though the forecast was revised down, we’re still expected to sell more homes than last year.
Once geopolitical tensions resolve, and rates begin to settle down, many experts believe that group of buyers will be ready to jump back in. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:
“There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.”
There has already been a few glimmers of renewed hope lately. In recent months, pending home sales have been improving month-over-month despite higher rates.
So, if you’re able to afford a home at today’s rates, it could still make sense to buy now. Because otherwise, if you wait, you’ll have more competition (and potentially fewer homes to choose from) when those other buyers jump back in.
New Home Sales Also Slowed
Builders also expected to have a stronger year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales would top 700k in 2026. Now, economists expect we’ll be just shy of that number.
Again, mortgage rates are a major reason why.
But the upside for buyers is that builders may be even more motivated to sell. That means builder incentives, negotiation opportunities, and pricing flexibility may continue in many markets. So, if you live somewhere where there’s more new construction, this may actually be a bright spot for you.
Builders could be more ready to negotiate, and that gives you more leverage to get a better deal.
Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise
This is one of the most important takeaways from the entire forecast. Even though sales activity is slower, on average, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward.
They still expect prices to rise nationally this year.
Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the number of homes for sale is still relatively limited overall. That imbalance is helping support prices, even in a slower market.
Of course, conditions vary depending on where you live. Some markets are cooling more than others. But nationally, experts are still projecting steady price growth, not a major decline. And that should be a comfort whether you’re buying or selling.
Because sellers don’t want a major drop in prices. And while buyers may think they do, generally you feel better about a big purchase when it doesn’t depreciate right away.
Bottom Line
The housing market hasn’t rebounded as quickly as experts originally hoped. But that doesn’t mean it’s stalled.
Higher inflation and lingering economic uncertainty caused economists to revise their forecasts for this year. But importantly, when those two things settle down, many experts believe the market will regain its momentum.
So don’t see this revision in forecasts as a sign of trouble. See it as a temporary reaction to overall conditions and uncertainty.
If you want to know what’s happening in your local market, and what it could mean for your plans for the rest of this year, talk to a local agent.
by Omar Cruz | May 29, 2026 | Affordability, Economy, For Buyers, Mortgage Rates
Author: Keeping Current Matters
Let’s be real with each other for a second about affordability. Because you deserve someone who will be honest and transparent about what’s going on, especially if you’ve got a move on your mind.
Here’s the full picture of what’s happening and why. The good – and the bad. So, you know what it truly means for your move. Because while rates are certainly a big part of affordability, they’re not the only factor at play.
Mortgage Rates Have Been Rising
After a year or more of rates trending down, they’ve started to climb again. And, if you’re looking to buy, that’s not what you want to see. But it has happened. And here’s why.
Uncertainty is the enemy of mortgage rates.
And with lingering global uncertainty, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and inflation refusing to fully cool off, there’s a lot that’s having an effect on rates. Colin Robertson, Founder of The Truth About Mortgage, put it plainly:
“You can’t have $100 a barrel oil and not expect inflation to rise, which translates to higher bond yields and mortgage rates.”
Take a look at the graph below. It uses data from Mortgage News Daily to show just how much all of those factors have had an impact:
It’s a pretty sharp contrast from where we’ve been, in a relatively short window. And it’s probably making you wonder: Should I just wait this out? Will rates fall when the uncertainty eases?
It’s possible. But it all depends on how the ongoing geopolitical conflict plays out and whether inflation continues to run hot afterwards – and for how long.
Rates probably aren’t heading down until both of those things improve. And even when that does happen, experts agree rates likely won’t be dramatically lower – maybe in the low to mid-6s. That’s the reality, and it’s worth knowing.
So, should you wait for lower rates? The general consensus is, if you can afford to buy and you find a home you like, it’s still worth it. Because no one knows for sure when rates will start to come back down – and how long do you really want to put your life on hold?
Wages Are Outpacing Home Prices
You’ve probably heard that inflation is making everything more expensive, and there’s no shortage of headlines about the cost-of-living outpacing paychecks. It’s a legitimate concern. And maybe you’re feeling the pinch yourself. But here’s what doesn’t make the headlines. It’s not all bad news.
Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Redfin shows wages have actually been growing faster than home prices.
- Recently, wages have been increasing at around 4% year-over-year.
- And home price growth is closer to 2% year-over-year.
As a buyer, you want your income to rise faster than prices because that helps make your purchase more manageable financially, and it quietly chips away at the affordability challenge over time. That’s exactly what we’re seeing lately. And every little bit is going to help.
A big reason wages have been gaining ground on home prices? Home prices have actually stayed pretty steady.
Existing Home Prices Have Held Steady
Check out the graph below. It shows home price data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) over the past 4 years. Notice anything? There’s been no dramatic runup, and no crash either. Just relative stability and slow growth:
Part of what’s keeping prices this stable is that buyers finally have more choices. That means less competition, more negotiating power, and more time to find the home that actually fits your life, not just the one you had to grab before someone else did.
And that gives you a chance to hopefully find something that works for your budget, even with today’s rates. At the same time, you’re not losing ground pricewise while you take time to make a careful decision.
Bottom Line
Yes, rates have been volatile, and global instability is keeping them from settling down anytime soon. There’s no sugarcoating that. But the full picture of affordability is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.
Want to run the real numbers for your situation? Talk with a local real estate agent. They’d love to show you what’s actually possible in today’s market. Reach out to set up a quick, no-pressure conversation.
by Omar Cruz | May 1, 2026 | Featured, For Buyers, Home Prices, Inventory, Mortgage Rates
Author: Keeping Current Matters
There’s a lot of uncertainty right now, and that’s leading to some dramatic headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that can make you feel a little less sure about your decision.
A recent study by CNBC asked homebuyers what they’re most worried about, and three themes kept coming up again and again:
- Mortgage rates
- The number of homes for sale
- Home prices
But a lot of what you may be hearing on those is based more on misconceptions. Not facts. So, let’s break it down and separate fact from fiction.
Misconception #1: “I’ll Just Wait, Because Mortgage Rates Are Going To Fall Dramatically”
One idea doing its rounds on social is that mortgage rates are going to drop dramatically soon. So, it’s better to wait to buy.
But is that really what’s expected?
While mortgage rates have come down a bit in the last few weeks, forecasts don’t show a major drop ahead. The most likely scenario is that rates stay somewhere in the low 6% range this year.
And that’s not a big change from where rates are now (see graph below):
Of course, this depends on where inflation and the economy go from here. But, based on what we know today, waiting for a big drop in rates may not work out the way some people hope. As U.S. News explains:
“Mortgage rates aren’t expected to change much over the next several quarters . . .”
Not to mention, even with rates where they are today, it’s already more affordable than a year ago. So, even if they don’t change much, it’s still better than it was.
Misconception #2: “There Are Too Many Homes for Sale Right Now”
You’ve probably heard inventory is up. And nationally, it is. The number of homes for sale is 8% higher than this time last year. But that’s not a bad thing. In fact, it’s one of the reasons buyers have a bit more breathing room right now.
The problem is the headlines are making something good sound bad. They’re focusing on how this is the most inventory we’ve had since 2019 or how many homes builders are building. And that can make it sound like the number of homes for sale is rising too far, too fast.
But that’s not what the bigger picture shows.
Data from Realtor.com proves that, even though inventory is up compared to last year, it’s still nearly 14% lower than it was during the last normal housing market (2017-2019):
While it can vary a lot based on where you live, only 9 states have more inventory than pre-pandemic today. That’s a key reason why there still aren’t enough homes for sale to trigger something like the crash back in 2008.
Misconception #3: “Home Prices Are About To Crash”
You’ve probably seen this one, too. The confusion is coming from the fact that some metros are experiencing slight price declines. And influencers are running with that and saying prices are crashing. But that’s not the reality.
Most areas are seeing prices rise, not fall. And that’s because:
- Many homeowners aren’t selling because they don’t want to give up the low mortgage rate they locked in a few years ago. And that’s keeping a lid on how much inventory can grow.
- Since inventory is still below pre-pandemic norms, there aren’t enough homes for sale to cause a price crash.
- And even in markets with more inventory, some sellers are choosing to pull their homes off the market instead of cutting prices.
And those are 3 big reasons prices aren’t headed for a crash.
And even in the markets experiencing mild declines, the drops aren’t enough to cancel out the big gains most homeowners have seen in the last 5 years (see graph below):
That’s not a crash. That’s just prices moderating after a few record-breaking years.
Bottom Line
Online posts are going to make things sound worse than they are. If you want a true, data-bound look at what’s really happening in today’s market, lean on a real estate agent.
Connect with a local agent so you have someone to separate fact from fiction today.
