by Omar Cruz | Jul 16, 2026 | Affordability, For Buyers, For Sellers, Forecasts, Home Prices, Mortgage Rates
Author: Keeping Current Matters
If the first half of this year has left you feeling stuck, you’re not the only one. Mortgage rates stayed higher than people wanted. Affordability remained tight. And uncertainty overseas added another layer of pressure nobody saw coming.
That’s why so many people are asking the same question: Will the second half of the year be any better for the housing market?
While nobody has a crystal ball, there are a few encouraging signs that things could start moving in a better direction. Here’s what to watch.
Mortgage Rates Could Be Near a Turning Point
One of the biggest reasons mortgage rates haven’t come down yet is inflation. And higher energy prices and uncertainty overseas are at least part of the reason inflation is still elevated. The encouraging news?
Oil prices have already started coming back down.
That may not sound like it has much to do with buying a home. But historically, mortgage rates and oil prices tend to move in the same direction.
Take a look at the graph below. Generally, they rise and fall together. Both went up in February when the conflict began. While there’s been some volatility lately, experts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) say oil prices are forecast to come down. And since oil prices have been on an overall downward trend lately, mortgage rates could come down too:
It’s too soon to say exactly when that will happen (or by how much they’ll fall), but if energy prices go down, inflation cools off, and tensions overseas ease, mortgage rates could come down in the second half of the year.
And that’s good news for anyone thinking about moving. The first half of the year tested everyone’s patience. The second half may finally reward it.
Home Prices Could Pick Back Up
A lot of people want home prices to fall, too. But that’s not what most forecasts show.
While price trends are going to vary by area, and some places are seeing mild declines, experts still expect home prices to net positive this year at the national level.
In fact, they’re projecting prices will rise by an average of 2.3% in 2026 (see graph below):
What does that mean for you? Right now, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)data shows prices are up about 1.7% nationally year-over-year. The average forecast for all of 2026? 2.3%.
Based on those projections, home price growth would have to pick up a bit during the second half of the year. Nothing dramatic, just enough to finish the year around that projected 2.3% gain.
Here’s why that’s possible.
The number of homes for sale has grown, but that growth may be starting to slow down. And if rates improve, more buyers could jump back into the market. More buyers competing could put modest upward pressure on prices, especially if inventory’s not growing as fast.
That’s why buyers shouldn’t assume waiting will guarantee a lower price later. And for sellers, that’s great news if you’ve been worried about your home’s value.
More Homes Are Expected To Sell
If you’ve been wondering why the housing market has felt quieter lately, you’re not imagining it. Home sales have been slower than many experts expected. But that doesn’t mean people have stopped wanting to move.
A lot of people still want or need to make a change. They’ve just been waiting for more certainty, better affordability, or a clearer read on where the market is headed. And early signs show that it may be on the horizon.
If rates ease and confidence improves, more people may finally move. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:
“Overall, we expect pent-up demand to continue emerging gradually. But the pace of recovery will vary significantly across markets and will depend on the path of rates, labor market conditions and inventory growth.”
Based on the latest forecasts, to hit the number of sales expected this year, here’s what would have to happen. The second half of the year would need to outperform the first in sales (see graph below):
In fact, each month for the rest of 2026 would have to come close to matching the best month we’ve had so far this year (May). That’s a sign the experts are calling for more momentum headed into the second half.
More people will finally make their move happen – and you’ve got the chance to be one of them.
Bottom Line
The second half of the year probably won’t be perfect. But it could be better.
Mortgage rates may ease. Home sales could pick up. And prices are expected to continue rising at a healthier, more sustainable pace. If you’ve been waiting for signs of progress, this is it.
If you want to understand what these forecasts mean for your plans and what’s happening in your local market, connect with an agent.
by Omar Cruz | Jun 5, 2026 | Economy, For Buyers, For Sellers, Forecasts, Home Prices, Mortgage Rates
Author: Keeping Current Matters
If the housing market feels confusing right now, you’re not alone.
Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven’t picked up like expected. And many buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or be more affordable.
The truth is: a lot changed over the first half of this year.
Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound.
But lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and growing geopolitical tensions overseas pushed mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates stayed elevated for longer, many buyers continued to hold off.
That’s why experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):
So, what does this actually mean for you? Let’s break it down.
Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated
While just about everyone wants mortgage rates to go back to the upper 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, as of right now, the experts don’t think that’s likely to happen this year.
Instead, forecasts have been updated from the low 6s they originally projected. Many industry organizations are saying rates will stay in roughly the mid-6s this year. The good news is that’s still lower than rates were a year ago.
Of course, this is based on what we know today. If the conflict overseas comes to an end or inflation drops, this could change. But if you’re waiting for lower rates, it may not pay off in the way you expect.
Existing Home Sales Revised Lower
Back in late 2025, experts expected we’d sell an average of 4.5 million homes this year. Now? That’s dropped down a bit to 4.2 million.
That tells us something important: buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains challenging.
Higher mortgage rates have made monthly payments harder to manage, especially for first-time buyers. And that’s slowed the pace of the market compared to what was originally expected. But even though the forecast was revised down, we’re still expected to sell more homes than last year.
Once geopolitical tensions resolve, and rates begin to settle down, many experts believe that group of buyers will be ready to jump back in. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:
“There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.”
There has already been a few glimmers of renewed hope lately. In recent months, pending home sales have been improving month-over-month despite higher rates.
So, if you’re able to afford a home at today’s rates, it could still make sense to buy now. Because otherwise, if you wait, you’ll have more competition (and potentially fewer homes to choose from) when those other buyers jump back in.
New Home Sales Also Slowed
Builders also expected to have a stronger year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales would top 700k in 2026. Now, economists expect we’ll be just shy of that number.
Again, mortgage rates are a major reason why.
But the upside for buyers is that builders may be even more motivated to sell. That means builder incentives, negotiation opportunities, and pricing flexibility may continue in many markets. So, if you live somewhere where there’s more new construction, this may actually be a bright spot for you.
Builders could be more ready to negotiate, and that gives you more leverage to get a better deal.
Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise
This is one of the most important takeaways from the entire forecast. Even though sales activity is slower, on average, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward.
They still expect prices to rise nationally this year.
Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the number of homes for sale is still relatively limited overall. That imbalance is helping support prices, even in a slower market.
Of course, conditions vary depending on where you live. Some markets are cooling more than others. But nationally, experts are still projecting steady price growth, not a major decline. And that should be a comfort whether you’re buying or selling.
Because sellers don’t want a major drop in prices. And while buyers may think they do, generally you feel better about a big purchase when it doesn’t depreciate right away.
Bottom Line
The housing market hasn’t rebounded as quickly as experts originally hoped. But that doesn’t mean it’s stalled.
Higher inflation and lingering economic uncertainty caused economists to revise their forecasts for this year. But importantly, when those two things settle down, many experts believe the market will regain its momentum.
So don’t see this revision in forecasts as a sign of trouble. See it as a temporary reaction to overall conditions and uncertainty.
If you want to know what’s happening in your local market, and what it could mean for your plans for the rest of this year, talk to a local agent.
by Omar Cruz | Feb 12, 2026 | For Buyers, Forecasts, Inventory
This Blog is written by Keeping Current Matters.
After a long stretch where buyers were competing for too few homes, inventory has made a comeback over the past year. And depending on where you live, that’s opening up your options in a meaningful way.
According to Realtor.com, the number of homes available for sale in January was the highest it’s been since 2020. Here’s why that’s such a big deal. Getting back to pre-pandemic levels signals a slow and steady return to what’s typical:
Now, it’s worth noting, nationally we’re not there yet – and having more inventory improving won’t suddenly “fix” the market. But the growth we’ve seen lately still changes how competitive the market feels.
- When there are more homes for sale, buyers gain time, options, and leverage.
- When there aren’t, the pressure ramps up quickly.
In the years since 2020, there weren’t enough homes for sale, and that made the market feel different. Rushed. Stressful. Intimidating.
But now it’s finally getting better.
A Growing Portion of the Country Is Getting Back to Normal
Depending on where you live, inventory growth is going to vary. Some places are bouncing back faster than others. According to Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, in January 2025, just a little over one year ago, only 41 of the 200 largest metros were back to normal inventory-wise.
But around the end of year, almost half (90) of the largest 200 metro areas were back at or above typical levels. That’s a big improvement in roughly a year. And it’s not done yet.
Inventory Is Expected To Keep Growing
Looking ahead, forecasts suggest the number of homes for sale could rise another 10% this year, which means even more markets should join the list of places where supply has rebounded.
Here’s a graph that shows what an extra 10% would do for the market this year. You can see that projected growth (shown in the dotted line) hits inventory levels seen in 2017-2019 by roughly this fall (the gray lines). That means we may reach normal by end of year, nationally:
And that changes your home search in a good way. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, puts it:
“. . . housing market conditions are gradually rebalancing after several years of extreme seller advantage. Buyers are beginning to see more options and modest negotiating power as inventory improves . . .”
In other words, the market is starting to work with buyers again — not against them.
Bottom Line
Inventory isn’t fully back to normal everywhere. But it’s moving in the right direction. And, in some areas, it’s already there.
If you’ve been waiting for a moment when you have options and a little breathing room, this is the strongest setup buyers have seen in a long time.
If you want to know what’s happening in your local market, talk to an agent.
by Omar Cruz | Jan 30, 2026 | First-Time Buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Forecasts
This Blog is written by “Keeping Current Matters.”
Who doesn’t love a top 10 list? Well, here are two top 10 lists for the housing market this year. But before you take a look, there’s something you should know.
If a move is on your radar for 2026, here’s the most important thing you need to understand upfront: there isn’t one housing market this year – there are many.
Experts agree that 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most geographically split housing markets in years. Some areas are tilting in favor of sellers, while others are opening real doors for buyers. Who has the advantage depends almost entirely on where you are. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, puts it this way:
“Looking ahead to 2026, regional differences will remain pronounced, with demand favoring areas that offer both economic opportunity and relative affordability.”
To show just how divided the landscape is, here’s a look at where sellers are expected to have the upper hand, and where first-time buyers may finally find their opening this year.
Where Sellers Are Poised To Win Big in 2026
Zillow identified the following metros as some of the strongest seller markets for 2026, based on buyer demand, pricing momentum, and how quickly homes are expected to sell:
In markets like these, buyers are going to be competing for limited inventory, which gives sellers more leverage.
Homeowners in seller’s markets this year can expect:
- Stronger buyer interest
- Shorter time on market
- Better odds of selling close to (or above) asking price
That doesn’t mean every listing is guaranteed success. But it does mean sellers who prepare well and lean on an agent’s expertise should be very happy with their results in 2026.
Markets Where There’s More Opportunity for First-Time Buyers
On the flip side, here’s a look at where buyers have the power – in particular, first-time buyers, since they’ve had the hardest time breaking into the market lately. Realtor.com highlights the top metros where first-time buyers are expected to have better opportunities in 2026:
These markets stand out for a mix of:
- More affordable home prices
- Better housing availability
- Strong local amenities and economic health
For first-time buyers, that combination matters. It’s what could finally turn “someday” into “this could actually work.” In buyer’s markets, they should expect:
- Less intense competition
- More room to negotiate
- A clearer path to getting an offer accepted
What Matters More Than Any Top 10 List
Not seeing your city on the list? Don’t stress. This is just a national snapshot, not a judgment on your local market. The goal here is just to show you how different the market really is depending on where you are.
And remember, you can buy or sell no matter how your local market leans. You just need an agent’s help to figure out the right strategy to get it done. For example:
- A seller in a more buyer-friendly metro may need to be aggressive on their price and prep.
- A buyer in a seller-leaning area may still need to come prepared with their best offer.
To find out where your market falls and what you should expect, you’ll want the help of a local expert.
Bottom Line
The housing market in 2026 isn’t one-size-fits-all. It’s a year where local conditions matter more than ever.
Whether your market leans more buyer-friendly or seller-friendly, the right strategy can put you in a strong position. And that’s where a local expert comes in. Connect with a trusted real estate agent today.
by Omar Cruz | Jan 21, 2026 | For Buyers, For Sellers, Forecasts, Home Prices, Inventory, Mortgage Rates
This blog was written by Keeping Current Matters
Wondering what to expect from the housing market in 2026? You’re not the only one. For the past few years, affordability has been the biggest barrier standing between most people and their next move. And a lot of buyers and sellers have been holding their breath waiting for things to get better. The good news? It’s finally happening.
In 2025, affordability was the best it’s been in 3 years. And experts agree the momentum will keep going in 2026. And that’s based on their analysis of the key factors shaping the housing market in the year ahead: mortgage rates, inventory, and home prices.
Lower Mortgage Rates Are Already Here
Mortgage rates have already come down from their peak. By some counts, they dropped by almost a full percentage point over the course of the last year. And that’s a big deal, even if it doesn’t sound like it. But how low will they go? And should you wait for them to come down more? Here’s your answer.
Forecasts suggest they’ll stay pretty much where they are now and hover in the low 6% range throughout 2026 (see graph below):
Where they go from here really depends on what happens with the economy, the job market, and any changes in monetary policy the Fed makes in the year ahead. The important thing is, they’re already lower than they were just one year ago, and that’s ideal if you’re planning a 2026 move.
- For buyers: A lower rate reduces monthly payments and increases buying power. And that combo helps more people qualify for homes that previously felt just out of reach.
- For sellers: It may be time to accept that rates in the 6s are the new normal. And if you need to move, it’s doable, especially with your equity.
Even More Options Are on the Way
In 2025, the number of homes for sale improved by about 15%. As inventory rose, buyers regained things they hadn’t had in years: options, time to consider those options, and negotiating leverage. That helped restore more balance to the housing market.
Not to mention, the inventory gains are a big piece of what’s helped price growth slow down, which in turn improves affordability.
While the inventory gains this year aren’t expected to be as steep, experts at Realtor.com say the supply of homes for sale should grow by another 8.9% this year.
- For buyers: That means even more choice and more negotiating power.
- For sellers: Pricing your house right will be essential to draw in buyers.
Home Price Growth Is Slowing to a More Sustainable Pace
With more homes for sale, there isn’t as much upward pressure on prices right now. And we’ve seen that shake out over the past year. Even so, the overwhelming majority of experts say, nationally, prices will continue rising in the year ahead – just at a slower pace. On average, they say prices will rise by 1.6% in 2026 (see graph below):
And that’s reassuring if you’ve been fed content on social media saying prices are going to come crashing down. But here’s what you need to remember most about this. It’s going to vary a lot by area.
So, lean on a local agent for the latest on what’s happening where you are. Some markets will see prices rise more than this. Others may see prices come down slightly. It really all depends on conditions in your local market
But overall, prices will continue to rise at the national level. And that’s good for the market as a whole. As Realtor.com explains:
“For homebuyers and sellers, the shift signals a more balanced market—one where price growth steadies, rate relief offers breathing room, and negotiating power tilts subtly toward buyers.”
- For buyers: Expect more moderate price growth, not the sudden and intense spikes just a few short years ago. That gives you fewer surprises and more predictability, which makes budgeting a whole lot easier.
- For sellers: This slower price growth restores balance without putting your equity at risk. And that’s a win.
More Homes Will Sell
All of this adds up to a better affordability equation in 2026. And that’s exactly why experts are saying we should see more homes sell (and more people buy) this year.
As Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow, says:
“Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026.”
The bottom line is, more people are finally going to be able to make their move this year. So, the question is: will you be one of them? The market is giving you an opportunity you haven’t had in a while. Maybe it’s time to take advantage of it.
Bottom Line
Affordability won’t change suddenly overnight. But, with several key trends working together, it should slowly and steadily improve in the months ahead.
That’s exactly why, in 2026, you should see a market with more balance, more predictability, and more breathing room than you’ve had in years.
Want more information about the opportunities unlocking in your local market? Connect with a real estate agent today.
by Omar Cruz | Jan 2, 2026 | For Buyers, For Sellers, Forecasts
The blogs below are from “Keeping Current Matters.”
If a move is on your radar for 2026, there’s a lot more working in your favor than there has been in a while.
After a stretch where many people felt stuck, 2026 is shaping up to be a year with more balance, more options, and more clarity for people who want to make a move. Not because the market is suddenly “easy,” but because several key conditions are shifting.
Here’s what the experts are saying you have to look forward to.
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com:
“After a challenging period for buyers, sellers and renters, 2026 should offer a welcome, if modest, step toward a healthier housing market.”
The National Association of Realtors (NAR):
“Top economists have one word to sum up the housing market for 2026: opportunity. Lower mortgage rates and a rising supply of homes are expected to open up the housing market . . . something the real estate industry and potential home buyers and sellers have been waiting for, following three years of stagnation.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:
“. . . for the first time in several years, the underlying forces are finally aligned toward gradual improvement. Mortgage rates may drift down only slowly, but income growth exceeding house price appreciation will provide a boost to house-buying power — even in a higher-rate world. Affordability won’t snap back overnight, but like a ship finally catching a steady tailwind, it’s now sailing in the right direction.”
Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow:
“Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026.”
Why Local Insight Matters More Than Ever
Just remember, while the national outlook is improving, conditions will still be different based on where you live. Some markets will move faster than others. Some will see stronger price growth. Others will remain flat. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:
“Market performance will hinge on local economic conditions, making 2026 one of the most geographically divided markets we’ve seen in years.”
That’s why understanding what’s happening in your specific area is key. The national trends set the stage, but local dynamics determine how they play out for you. And that’s why you need an agent.
Bottom Line
If you want more information on what these trends mean for your local market and which trends you’ll want to take advantage of, reach out to a trusted real estate agent.
