by Omar Cruz | Aug 19, 2026 | Affordability, Mortgage Rates
Author- Keeping Current Matters
If you’re waiting for mortgage rates to fall a lot before you buy, you may be waiting a while. But before you get discouraged, there’s a number working behind the scenes that’s actually good for you right now. It’s called the spread, and once you understand it, you may see today’s rates in a whole new light.
The Pattern That’s Held for 50+ Years
For starters, mortgage rates don’t move on their own. They tend to follow the 10-year treasury yield, a number tied to how investors feel about the economy.
It’s not an exact science, since plenty of other factors can move it day to day, but broadly speaking, when the economy looks strong, that yield tends to climb over time. When the outlook gets shaky, it tends to ease. For over 50 years, the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates have moved almost in lockstep (see graph below):
The gap between them is called the “spread.” On average, that gap runs about 1.76 percentage points. And that spread impacts your mortgage rate. A wider spread tends to push mortgage rates higher than the treasury yield alone would suggest, while a narrower spread keeps rates closer to the treasury yield.
One of the Big Reasons Rates Likely Won’t Drop Dramatically Anytime Soon
If you’re hoping mortgage rates will drop a lot, here’s the reality, they probably won’t, at least not anytime soon. One of the big reasons why comes down to that spread between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates.
A few years ago, that gap got a lot wider as uncertainty in the economy pushed it as high as 3.19 points in 2023.
Now here’s the part worth noting that gap has been narrowing lately. It’s down to about 2.01, just above the long-term average of 1.76 (see graph below):
When the gap is wide, there’s more room for rates to fall. But when it’s relatively normal, like it is now, there’s less wiggle room for rates to fall.
Why Mortgage Rates Aren’t Higher Right Now
Today’s mortgage rate is basically the treasury yield plus the spread. So, when either one moves, your rate moves with it. Here are 3 different rates, all built off today’s 10-year treasury yield of 4.68% to show you just how much the spread matters for your bottom line (see graph below):
If the spread were still stretched out like it was in 2023, rates would be pushing close to 8% right now. That’s because the spread was over a full point wider than it is today.
But now, thanks to the spread narrowing recently, today’s rate sits around 6.69%. That’s the middle scenario in that visual. That’s a big difference in your monthly payment compared what we could see if the spread was as big as it was 2023. As Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, put it:
“Of course, mortgage spreads being better in 2026 is the housing hero story of the year . . .”
Now compare that middle bar to the 3rd one. If the spread were sitting at its exact long-term average, rates would be around 6.5%. That’s only about a quarter of a point away from where rates actually are today. That means most of the improvement in mortgage rates we should realistically expect from a shrinking spread has already happened.
In other words, the same narrowing spread that’s the reason rates aren’t close to 8% today is also a big reason why they’re not likely to fall a lot further.
Bottom Line
That’s the trade-off with a narrowing spread. Rates may not be where you want them, but they’re better than they could’ve been. If you want help figuring out what that means for your monthly payment, reach out to a local lender
by Omar Cruz | Aug 13, 2026 | Affordability, Buying Tips, For Buyers
Author: Keeping Current Matters
If buying a home is on your radar, you’ve probably been keeping an eye on mortgage rates and home prices. But don’t forget about homeowners insurance.
Homeowners insurance has always been part of owning a home. But over the past few years, it’s become a larger expense for many homeowners – something that’s especially frustrating when affordability already feels tight.
The good news? While premiums are still rising, the latest data shows those increases are beginning to slow. Here’s what buyers should know.
Home Insurance Costs Have Gone Up
You’ve probably heard stories from friends or family about their premiums going up. And that’s not really a surprise when you consider data from the Pew Research Center shows 71% of homeowners say their insurance costs have gone up over the past few years.
While no one likes rising costs, knowing what to expect can help you plan ahead. Your first insurance payment is typically included in your closing costs, but after that it’ll become part of your monthly housing expenses.
Getting an insurance quote early can help you build a more realistic budget and avoid surprises later.
Premiums Are Rising, But Not as Fast as They Were
Most of the headlines focus on how home insurance is getting more expensive. And that’s true. But here’s the part that’s easy to miss.
Insurance premiums are still rising.
But they’re not rising as fast as they were.
According to the latest report from Rate Insurance, 2025 saw the first slowdown in annual premium increases since 2019 (see graph below):
That doesn’t mean premiums are getting cheaper. It simply means the rapid increases of the past several years may finally be starting to ease – a small but welcome step in the right direction.
But what you’ll pay in one part of the country can look very different from what someone pays somewhere else.
Where You Buy Can Make a Big Difference
Insurance costs vary because some parts of the country experience more claims than others. That’s why it’s important to look at what’s happening locally.
Your premium will depend on things like where you’re buying, the home itself, and the coverage you choose.
Forbes data can give a rough idea of your state’s typical premiums. Check out the map below – the darker the blue, the higher the costs tend to be in that state:
Ways To Lower Your Costs
While you can’t control every cost that comes with buying a home, you can control how prepared you are. If you’re crunching the numbers and trying to find ways to save, Insurify and NerdWallet offer these tips that can help you get the best insurance price possible:
- Shop Around – Compare quotes from multiple companies.
- Bundle Policies – Combine home and auto to see if a bundle price is lower.
- Ask If There Are Discounts – Don’t miss out on savings you may qualify for.
- Highlight Upgrades – Features like a new roof or storm windows can cut costs.
- Improve Your Credit – A stronger credit score can mean better premiums.
One of the smartest things you can do is get an insurance quote before you make an offer. That way, you’ll know what your monthly housing costs are likely to be before you commit.
An insurance professional can walk you through your options and help you find coverage that fits both your needs and your budget.
Bottom Line
Homeowners insurance has become a bigger part of the homebuying conversation. But it doesn’t have to become a bigger source of stress.
The key is knowing what to expect before you buy. Get an insurance quote early, factor it into your budget, and lean on trusted local professionals to help you make the most informed decision possible.
by Omar Cruz | Jul 29, 2026 | Affordability, Buying Tips, Downsize, First-Time Buyers, For Buyers
Author: Keeping Current Matters:
Today’s home prices have a lot of buyers – especially first-time buyers – wondering if there’s even anything out there that’s in their budget. But owning a home may be more within reach than you think. Sometimes, it just means considering a different type of home.
Condos and townhomes can be a great way to buy without stretching every last dollar. And right now, two things make them worth a serious look.
There Are More Condos and Townhomes To Choose From
Maybe you feel like there’s just nothing out there for you, and you’ve exhausted all your options. But have you considered condos or townhomes? A lot of buyers start by looking for a single-family, detached home without even realizing what that search omits from their pool of choices.
According to HousingWire Data, there were 233,030 condos and townhomes for sale this June. That’s more than any June in at least the past decade, and more than double the number available back in 2022 (see graph below):
That means there are more options out there in this segment of the market – and that’s especially good news for first-time buyers. These types of homes can be a great way to break into the market for less.
Just remember, that’s the national number. What’s available will depend on where you’re looking. But generally speaking, more options means less competition, more time to decide, and more room to negotiate.
They Also Tend To Cost Less Than Single-Family Homes
Price is the other big draw. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median condo price was $380,000 in June. In contrast, the median single-family home price was $446,400 (see graph below):
That’s a difference of more than $66,000.
A big reason why? Condos are usually smaller than single-family homes. And smaller homes can come with smaller price tags.
And if you don’t need all that extra space, that lower entry price could be exactly what gets you through the door.
Condo or Townhome? How They’re Different.
For buyers who feel priced out of the market, a condo or townhome could be a way in. But there are some things to know. Before you start checking out homes, it’s good to understand how these two compare to each other – and to a single-family home.
- With a single-family detached home, you own the house and the land it sits on, and you don’t share any walls with neighbors. That means the most space and privacy. But it also usually comes with a higher tag, and all the maintenance is on you.
- With a townhome, you own the building and the lot it sits on. They’re usually multi-level, so you get more space, and you share two walls at most. You’ll also have more say over how your home looks and how repairs get done, but more of that upkeep falls on you.
- With a condo, you own just the inside of your unit and may have access to community features like a pool or gym. The building and shared space belong to everyone who lives there, which means you have fewer maintenance responsibilities. But you’ll also likely have more neighbors around you, less control over building decisions, and higher HOA fees since the HOA handles the exterior and common areas.
Bottom Line
A condo or townhome could be your path to owning a home without blowing your budget. Connect with a local real estate agent to see what’s for sale in your area and figure out which type of home fits your lifestyle and your bottom line.
by Omar Cruz | Jul 16, 2026 | Affordability, For Buyers, For Sellers, Forecasts, Home Prices, Mortgage Rates
Author: Keeping Current Matters
If the first half of this year has left you feeling stuck, you’re not the only one. Mortgage rates stayed higher than people wanted. Affordability remained tight. And uncertainty overseas added another layer of pressure nobody saw coming.
That’s why so many people are asking the same question: Will the second half of the year be any better for the housing market?
While nobody has a crystal ball, there are a few encouraging signs that things could start moving in a better direction. Here’s what to watch.
Mortgage Rates Could Be Near a Turning Point
One of the biggest reasons mortgage rates haven’t come down yet is inflation. And higher energy prices and uncertainty overseas are at least part of the reason inflation is still elevated. The encouraging news?
Oil prices have already started coming back down.
That may not sound like it has much to do with buying a home. But historically, mortgage rates and oil prices tend to move in the same direction.
Take a look at the graph below. Generally, they rise and fall together. Both went up in February when the conflict began. While there’s been some volatility lately, experts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) say oil prices are forecast to come down. And since oil prices have been on an overall downward trend lately, mortgage rates could come down too:
It’s too soon to say exactly when that will happen (or by how much they’ll fall), but if energy prices go down, inflation cools off, and tensions overseas ease, mortgage rates could come down in the second half of the year.
And that’s good news for anyone thinking about moving. The first half of the year tested everyone’s patience. The second half may finally reward it.
Home Prices Could Pick Back Up
A lot of people want home prices to fall, too. But that’s not what most forecasts show.
While price trends are going to vary by area, and some places are seeing mild declines, experts still expect home prices to net positive this year at the national level.
In fact, they’re projecting prices will rise by an average of 2.3% in 2026 (see graph below):
What does that mean for you? Right now, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)data shows prices are up about 1.7% nationally year-over-year. The average forecast for all of 2026? 2.3%.
Based on those projections, home price growth would have to pick up a bit during the second half of the year. Nothing dramatic, just enough to finish the year around that projected 2.3% gain.
Here’s why that’s possible.
The number of homes for sale has grown, but that growth may be starting to slow down. And if rates improve, more buyers could jump back into the market. More buyers competing could put modest upward pressure on prices, especially if inventory’s not growing as fast.
That’s why buyers shouldn’t assume waiting will guarantee a lower price later. And for sellers, that’s great news if you’ve been worried about your home’s value.
More Homes Are Expected To Sell
If you’ve been wondering why the housing market has felt quieter lately, you’re not imagining it. Home sales have been slower than many experts expected. But that doesn’t mean people have stopped wanting to move.
A lot of people still want or need to make a change. They’ve just been waiting for more certainty, better affordability, or a clearer read on where the market is headed. And early signs show that it may be on the horizon.
If rates ease and confidence improves, more people may finally move. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:
“Overall, we expect pent-up demand to continue emerging gradually. But the pace of recovery will vary significantly across markets and will depend on the path of rates, labor market conditions and inventory growth.”
Based on the latest forecasts, to hit the number of sales expected this year, here’s what would have to happen. The second half of the year would need to outperform the first in sales (see graph below):
In fact, each month for the rest of 2026 would have to come close to matching the best month we’ve had so far this year (May). That’s a sign the experts are calling for more momentum headed into the second half.
More people will finally make their move happen – and you’ve got the chance to be one of them.
Bottom Line
The second half of the year probably won’t be perfect. But it could be better.
Mortgage rates may ease. Home sales could pick up. And prices are expected to continue rising at a healthier, more sustainable pace. If you’ve been waiting for signs of progress, this is it.
If you want to understand what these forecasts mean for your plans and what’s happening in your local market, connect with an agent.
by Omar Cruz | Jul 9, 2026 | Affordability, Buying Tips, First-Time Buyers, For Buyers
Author: Keeping Current Matters
Saving for a down payment can feel like the hardest part of buying a home. And with affordability as tight as it’s been lately, it’s fair to wonder how anyone manages it right now. Here’s something you may not have seen coming.
Some people are getting their foot in the door with a smaller down payment.
According to Realtor.com, the typical buyer put down about $23,400 in early 2026 – that’s around $5,000 below what was typical the year before (a 19% drop year over year). That’s the lowest down payment it has been since 2021 (see graph below):
So why are buyers putting less money down, and how can you put less down, too? Here’s your answer.
Why Down Payments Are Getting Smaller
There are a few things driving the trend:
- Less competition between buyers. Part of it comes down to a more balanced market. With buyers facing less competition than they did a few years ago, there’s less pressure to put a big sum down just to stand out.
- More moderate home prices. Your down payment is a percentage of the purchase price. So, as price growth cools, the amount you need to put down may change too. In a lot of markets, prices have slowed or leveled off, and some areas are even seeing slight dips. That can translate into smaller down payments.
- Buyers are opting for loans with lower down payments. More buyers are also turning to government-backed loans, like FHA and VA, which often need little or no money down. FHA loans have made up more than 24% of purchase mortgages for five straight quarters, and VA loans recently hit their highest share in over a decade, according to Mortgage Professional America.
But even a smaller down payment is still a significant chunk of cash, and saving it can be hard. So where does the rest come from? For many buyers, two things make the difference: programs built to help, and a hand from loved ones.
Help You May Not Know You Qualify For
Down payment assistance is one of the most overlooked tools out there. Looking at the 10 largest U.S. metros, Urban Institute and Down Payment Resource found nearly 44% of recent buyers already qualified for a down payment program, but many of them closed on their loan without tapping the help (see chart below):
The options are broader than you might assume, too. According to Down Payment Resource:
- There are more than 2,600 down payment assistance programs available
- More than half (62%) are designed to help first-time buyers
- 38% have no first-time buyer requirement, so you may qualify even if you’ve owned before
- 62% are open to buyers earning $100,000 or more
A Boost from Loved Ones
For a growing number of buyers, help comes from closer to home. Research from Veterans United shows that about 59% of parents have provided or plan to provide financial support to help their child buy a home.
That support most often goes toward the down payment, followed by help qualifying for a mortgage and covering closing costs. Chris Birk, VP of Mortgage Insight at Veterans United, puts it this way:
“For many families, helping a child buy a home has become less of an optional gesture and more of a practical response to today’s affordability challenges.”
If your loved ones are in a position to help, it can make a real difference in how soon you can buy.
Bottom Line
Down payments are smaller than they’ve been in years, and that opens the door for more buyers.
And with added help from assistance programs and a little help from loved ones, you may have more ways forward than you realized. Connect with a trusted lender to talk through your options.
by Omar Cruz | Jul 3, 2026 | Affordability, Buying Tips, First-Time Buyers, For Buyers
Author: Keeping Current Matters
Open up a home search, and you’ll see them. Listings that have been on the market for two months. Three. Some longer.
Most buyers scroll right past them, assuming something’s wrong with the house. But that instinct could be costing you, since the longer a home sits, the more motivated the seller usually gets.
Where Some Buyers Are Finding Better Deals
If affordability has been your #1 hurdle to buying, here’s a surprisingly simple strategy that could help you finally get your foot in the door. Start with the homes that have been sitting the longest. That’s often where the best deals are.
Here’s why. Data from Realtor.com shows there’s a connection between longer time on the market and lower sales prices. Basically, the longer a house sits, the more likely it is that the seller will reduce the price (see graph below):
The blue line tracks how long homes stay on the market, while the green line tracks the share of homes getting a price reduction. As one climbs, so does the other.
And if you focus on these homes that are just sitting and waiting, the opportunity for you is bigger than you may think right now.
Redfin data shows there’s $347 billion worth of stale listings on the market right now – more than ever before for this time of year. So, ask your agent to filter listings for you from oldest to newest. The home that fits your budget might already be there. Just further down the list than you thought.
Lingering Doesn’t Always Mean Something’s Wrong
Let’s say you do that and something catches your eye. Still, you might be questioning why the home has been sitting in the first place. Just remember, sometimes it has nothing to do with the home itself.
According to Redfin, common causes are:
- The asking price was set too high to start
- The home didn’t show well online
- There are a lot of homes for sale in the area, so it just got buried
So, nothing that’s necessarily a dealbreaker, or even anything that’s wrong with the home itself. If there’s a real issue, a thorough inspection will surface it. And that’s information you can use to negotiate. Not a reason to assume it’s a house worth skipping over.
How To Turn a Lingering Listing into a Win
So how do you capitalize on a lingering listing? According to USA Today, you have two main levers to pull.
The first is price. Work with your agent to study what comparable homes recently sold for, then build an offer around that. Coming in below the asking price is fair game when a home has been sitting.
The second is concessions. If a seller won’t budge much on price, they may still help in other ways, like covering some closing costs, offering repair credits, or even a mortgage rate buydown that lowers your monthly payment.
A local agent has the context to tell which homes are the real opportunities and which are skippable.
Bottom Line
A house sitting on the market isn’t always a glaring red flag. In today’s market, it may be your best opportunity yet.
For help deciding which lingering listings are actually worth a second look, connect with a local real estate agent.
